Journal Transition Studies Review https://transitionacademiapress.org/jtsr <p align="justify"><span style="color: black; font-family: Kepler Std; font-size: x-large;">T</span>ransition Studies Research Network was founded in 2002 as CEEUN-Central Eastern European University Cooperation, with the aim to connect a group of experts and university faculty in a program of cooperation devoted to research programs and specialized international postgraduate and doctoral courses. The Network has grown fast and soon after the scientific “voice” was established with the Journal Transition Studies Review, published initially by the CEEUN, then by Egea - Bocconi University Press, and finally by Springer Wien-New York.</p> Transition Academia Press en-US Journal Transition Studies Review 1614-4007 <p align="justify">The author gives permission to Transition Academia Press to publish the article in print and/or electronic format.</p> <p align="justify">If/when an article is accepted for publication, Author will be asked to transfer copyright of the article to Transition Academia Press. Transition Academia Press will retain copyright of all published material and reserves the right to re-use any such material in any print and/or electronic format. Author willing to retain their copyright from the Editors might request a fair condition, on the base of a bilateral agreement.</p> <div><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" /> <div> <p> </p> </div> </div> Efficiency of State Banks in the Economy of Poland and Ukraine https://transitionacademiapress.org/jtsr/article/view/509 <p>The purpose of the research is to analyze and compare the efficiency of public, private and foreign banks in Poland and Ukraine for the period 2014-2020. To achieve the goal of the study, a quantitative approach based on the calculation of financial ratios such as net interest margin (NIM), average return on equity (ROAE), average return on assets (ROAA) and cost-to-income ratio (CIR) is used. The best performance indicators and the best efficiency in terms of criteria such as NIM, ROAE, ROAA and CIR in the period 2014-2019 were demonstrated in Poland by state-owned banking groups; however, in 2020, according to ROAE and ROAA, the best results showed banks with foreign capital (in particular, the banking group BNP Paribas Polska). The private bank Getin Noble was the worst in all evaluation criteria.<br>The largest share of net assets in the banking system of Ukraine, as in Poland, is occupied by state-owned banks, while the share of foreign banks continued to decline, and the share of private banks was the smallest in the banking system. However, the best indicators of NIM, ROAE, ROAA, and CIR in the last three years were demonstrated in Ukraine by foreign banks. <br>The result of the analysis shows that in the crisis situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, both in Ukraine and Poland, banks with foreign capital showed the highest efficiency in their activities, and the least - banks fully controlled by national capital.<br>Modeling of the efficiency of state-owned banks in Ukraine showed that state-owned banks are mostly inefficient; this requires their privatization with the mandatory participation of foreign investors.</p> Sergey Yakubovskiy Giorgio Dominese Artem Piatkov Tetiana Rodionova Copyright (c) 2022 Journal Transition Studies Review 2022-04-15 2022-04-15 29 1 3 26 10.14665/1614-4007-29-1-001 Preconditions and Obstacles for Monetary Integration: Prospects for Euroization of Ukraine https://transitionacademiapress.org/jtsr/article/view/486 <p>Monetary integration may take various forms ranging from exchange rate peg to establishing a monetary union with a single currency and single monetary policy like in the EU. An extended view on the criteria for efficient monetary integration is tested by considering whether Ukraine is ready for monetary integration with the Euro Area (EA). The criteria are grouped into 6 categories: economic openness, intensity of economic relations, integration and convergence with EA, external and internal imbalances. The indicators in Ukraine are compared to the past data and either the values in EA or official thresholds. Currently 2/3 of the criteria are met by Ukraine. The most advanced situation is in economic integration and relations with EA, while lack of convergence with EA is the main obstacle. Nevertheless, Ukraine has made progress by the majority of criteria in comparison to the situation before the Association Agreement was signed, primarily in external balances, economic links and integration with EA. Some negative trends were related to divergence with EA and internal imbalances. If the general positive trend continues, pegging to the euro may become an optimal regime in several years and in the longer run euroization may become a feasible choice for Ukraine.</p> Oleksandr Rogach Oleksii Chugaiev Oleksandr Shnyrkov Copyright (c) 2022 Journal Transition Studies Review 2022-04-15 2022-04-15 29 1 27 43 10.14665/1614-4007-29-1-002 Who will be the next in line to join the Euro Area? A business cycle synchronization evidence https://transitionacademiapress.org/jtsr/article/view/447 <p>This paper investigates business cycle synchronisation between seven-candidate countries to the Euro Area (EA) – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden – and the Euro Area (EA-12/EA-19), France, and Germany. The Hodrick-Prescott filter decomposes the real Gross Domestic Product into trend and cyclical components for the period 1995Q1-2019Q4. The results indicate the existence of a strong business cycle synchronisation between Sweden and the Euro Area, Germany, and France. The second highest correlation was observed for the Czech Republic, followed by Hungary, Poland, and Croatia. In contrast, Bulgaria and Romania show the weakest business cycle synchronisation with both the Euro Area and the core economies. We conclude that Sweden is the most prepared country to be the next passenger in the single currency train from business cycle synchronisation.</p> Nuno Baetas da Silva António Portugal Duarte Martin Lábaj Agáta Šuláková Copyright (c) 2022 Journal Transition Studies Review 2022-04-15 2022-04-15 29 1 45 64 10.14665/1614-4007-29-1-003 Improvement-Based Approach for Control over Solvency of Commercial Organizations in the Context of Prediction of Preferred Capital Structure https://transitionacademiapress.org/jtsr/article/view/433 <p>In line with the current developments and expected new challenges in the world economy, there is an objective need to comprehensively improve commercial organizations’ financial management system and control processes in place. This research aims to establish a direct link between the training model developed by us for forecasting the capital structure of organizations and the process of monitoring solvency by offering new solutions. Methods of statistical and comparative analysis, as well as forecasting methods, are used. To this end, the approach of D. Durant was chosen from among the approaches to classifying the solvency of organizations. Within the scope of this article, this method has been carried out for several Armenian companies, such as “Proshyan Brandy Factory” LLC, «Vedi Alco» CJSC, and «Arge Business» LLC. As a result of the study, the authors identified three main indicators (the value of economic profitability, the values of the current liquidity index and the autonomy index), which were predicted using a new training model. The classification zones according to the D. Durant approach were also defined, as well as the ranges for their determination. The key conclusion of the study is the thesis that the proposed approach helps solve the problems of strategic financial management of commercial organizations and improve the process of monitoring solvency.</p> Khachatur Baboyan Copyright (c) 2022 Journal Transition Studies Review 2022-04-15 2022-04-15 29 1 65 82 10.14665/1614-4007-29-1-004 The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in the Western Balkans https://transitionacademiapress.org/jtsr/article/view/435 <p>This study aims to analyze the impact that public debt has on economic growth in the long run for six remaining countries of the Western Balkans that have not joined the European Union yet, also referred to as the Western Balkan 6 (WB6) by including even the effect of debt threshold and other determinant factors of debt efficiency. In the study, we examine and evaluate the direct effect that an increase in public debt has on the economic growth of the WB6, which is based on public expenditure to affect economic development during the economic transition. <br />This study also verifies whether increasing debt beyond the Maastricht treaty’s threshold hinders economic growth. Empirical results of the models show that public debt has a positive impact on the economic growth of the WB6 countries, regardless of its level, and that the increase of corruption in the WB6 countries has a negative impact on their economic growth. <br />Moreover, from the model, the stock of public debt in these countries is negatively affected by the increase in the efficiency of good governance and positively affected by the level of public revenues. In conclusion, we can say that improving good governance and reducing corruption can serve to increase the efficiency of reallocation of public expenditures; this will lead in the long run to a reduction of the public debt stock in relation to the GDP for WB6 countries.</p> Ledjon Shahini Klodian Muço Copyright (c) 2022 Journal Transition Studies Review 2022-04-15 2022-04-15 29 1 83 96 10.14665/1614-4007-29-1-005 Reshaping the EU-China and China-UK Trade Relations after Brexit https://transitionacademiapress.org/jtsr/article/view/443 <p>The national referendum, held on June 23, 2016, in the UK, resulted in a 51.9% vote to exit the EU. Brexit (British Exit) has strongly impacted EU-UK relations and China-EU and China-UK relations. China has already become the second-largest economy globally since 2010, functioning as the world’s factory and the world’s marketplace. Both the EU and the UK are focused on strengthening their post-Brexit trade relations with China. The EU and China have concluded a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) in 2020. <br />The UK has adopted a “Global Britain” policy and will negotiate free trade agreements (FTAs) with other countries. Whether China signs a CAI or an FTA with them or not, both the EU and the UK are focused on the importance of such agreements with China. China will be a beneficiary of Brexit. The changes and impacts which Brexit will bring for UK-EU, China-EU, and China-UK relations are only the beginning. Re-adjustment is indeed needed in order to reach new and cooperative relationships. All this rebalancing will require hard work and political will from all parties - China, the UK, and the EU. <br />This paper will examine the impact of Brexit on China-EU and on China-UK trade relations and the opportunities and challenges that Brexit will afford to China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative, among other key issues. Suppose China joins the EU and UK in upholding WTO multilateralism. In that case, China is expected to become an essential pillar of the international trade system and make a significant contribution to international economic growth and the common well-being of humanity.</p> Der-Chin Horng Copyright (c) 2022 Journal Transition Studies Review 2022-04-15 2022-04-15 29 1 97 108 10.14665/1614-4007-29-1-006 Military Spending and External Debt in Middle East and North Africa https://transitionacademiapress.org/jtsr/article/view/417 <p>This study investigates the nexus between military expenditure and exploding external debt in 13 countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) from 2000 to 2019 by employing the second generation of panel econometrics such as cross-sectional independence (CD), CIPS unit root, Pedroni cointegration, Westerlund cointegration, and panel PMG model. The sensitivity of long-run estimates is explored by using fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) regression analysis. Pedroni and Westerlund’s cointegration findings reveal that the selected variables are cointegrated in the long run. The long-run results of the PMG model revealed that current account balance, fiscal balance, and foreign exchange reserve reveal the significant negative effect of various intensities, whereas increasing military spending shows a significant positive effect of higher intensity. The short-run results of the PMG model reveal an insignificant effect of selected variables. Estimated results of FMOLS and DOLS show the robustness of established long-run relationships. <br />This study urges governments of selected MENA countries to address current account and fiscal imbalances along with the considerable reduction of military expenditures to free capital required for productive economic activities.</p> <p> </p> Shujaat Abbas Irfan Lal Muhammad Zubair Copyright (c) 2022 Journal Transition Studies Review 2022-04-15 2022-04-15 29 1 109 125 10.14665/1614-4007-29-1-007 The Empirical Evidence on Albanian Youth Migration https://transitionacademiapress.org/jtsr/article/view/474 <p>The migration phenomenon has already become a global trend affecting all countries worldwide. The dimensions that emigration has taken nowadays affect both the individual as well as the general social aspect. Almost 30 years after the demise of the communist regime, a vast number of Albanian people are still immigrating to other more developed countries. This group choosing to emigrate is dominated by youth.<br />Most young people face difficulties in the labor market because lacking job experience, scarce or no income, and low wages. All of these have a negative impact on their economic and social aspects. The reasons behind migration vary from personal reasons for young people to the country’s socioeconomic conditions. This article is based on the literature review and previous studies done for our country regarding the factors that influence the tendency of young people to emigrate. <br />Our study aims to analyze some of the push factors, in their perception, make young Albanian people emigrate. After processing the data collected through the questionnaires, we analyzed them to reach some conclusions. The SPSS V.21 Software was used to process the data and test the logistic model of this study.</p> Alma Zisi Bitila Shosha Armela Anamali Copyright (c) 2022 Journal Transition Studies Review 2022-04-22 2022-04-22 29 1 127 139 10.14665/1614-4007-29-1-008